Land Rush!

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First Quarter Statistics

This week we'd like to share with you an article that appeared in today's edition of the Durango Herald regarding recent market activity.

Home sales increase in Durango, Bayfield

By Emery Cowan, Durango Herald

The number of La Plata County homes sold in the first three months of 2012 increased compared with the same period last year, while prices have continued to fall, according to the latest local real-estate statistics.

The report from the Durango Area Realtors Association showed the median home prices declined in most parts of the county compared with the first quarter of 2011.

Durango condos and Bayfield in-town homes saw a price drop of a bit more than 10 percent while prices on resort condos dropped 38 percent from $250,000 to $155,000.

Prices increased for Durango in-town homes, Bayfield county homes and undeveloped land.

In Durango, the median price for a home was $329,950 for the first quarter of 2012, a 1.52 percent increase compared with the same period in 2011. In Bayfield, the median home went for $171,000, a 10.66 percent decline from the first three months of 2011.

Across the board, the number of homes sold last quarter was up compared with the same period in 2011. Homes sales in Durango and Bayfield as well as Durango country homes increased 60 percent or more. Countywide, the number of properties sold increased by an average of 27 percent compared with the first quarter last year.

While most of the increase in home sales can be attributed to low interest rates and falling prices, the balmy weather during the first months of 2012 also could have played a role, said Jarrod Nixon, president of the Durango Area Association of Realtors.

The lack of major snowfall may have enticed some sellers to bring homes on market earlier than normal and also may have encouraged sellers who would normally take their homes off the market in winter to keep their units up for sale this year, he said.

“With such mild weather this winter, everything moved up,” Wells Group Owner John Wells said.

The increase in the number of sales is a good predictor that prices will start to rise as the inventory shrinks, Nixon said. Right now distressed properties like foreclosures and short sales are continuing to depress prices.

“Potential buyers still have a lot of options,” Nixon said.

In-town Durango homes priced below $300,000 are where that recovery is happening quickest, Nixon said. Average days on the market for residential properties in Durango dropped from 247 days in 2010 to 143 days in 2012, a sign that supply is dwindling. Other parts of the county where there is more inventory aren’t rebounding as fast, said Don Ricedorff, a real-estate agent with the Wells Group.

Even so, days on the market were generally declining in most parts of the county except resort areas, where properties spent an average of 777 days on the market last quarter, compared with 442 in the first quarter of last year.

The Move Up Buyer

I thought I'd share with you this week what I believe is an interesting perspective on a segment of the market that has been dormant recently, the "move up buyer," i.e the folks who are currently in a home but would like to move up to something bigger. These folks have been sitting on the sidelines of the real estate market because they feel that they would lose money on the house they're currently in. But in my opinion, move up buyers are losing a real opportunity if they don’t act right now. Yes, they may not realize what they'd like on the house they’re currently in, in many cases from the 2006 price, but they will save significant money on the house they’re moving to. The first chart below illustrates that concept given some hypothetical current and move-up home values. The second chart illustrates another important concept and that is that monthly mortgage payment savings on the new home bought at the 2012 price versus the mortgage payment on the same house purchase in year 2016 when presumably the price has gone up, given the low historical rates right now (this illustration is based on a jumbo loan rate).

WELLS GROUP FORECAST: 2012 A "RESET" YEAR AND TIME TO BUY!

The Wells Group Forecast was well attended on Wednesday by numerous Wells Group clients, investors, developers, friends and representatives from several local financial institutions. Local appraiser and real estate consultant Bob Allen provided attendees with a detailed analysis of our local real estate market followed by a "forecast" for 2012 crafted through the collective wisdom and experience of the Wells Group brokers. A brief recap from the Forecast included the following:

Local indicators show that many of the sectors in our market are balanced.

There has been a substantial inventory reduction.

Cost of funds + low values = great opportunities.

The window on some good deals will close in 2012.

300 - 400 new households need to find housing in 2012.

There will be more "move-ups" or "move-downs" in 2012.

Rental property inventory will be absorbed.

Second home and vacation home buyers are coming back to the market.

Resort property sales are up 31% year over year.

If you would like to access the Forecast materials on-line or have us send you a copy, please contact our office at 970-375-7014 or email us at: don@durangorealproperty.com

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call me. You can reach me, Don Ricedorff, at The Wells Group 970-375-7014, don@frontier.net, or at my website at durangorealproperty.com.

Don Ricedorff is a licensed real estate broker in the State of Colorado, with 18+ years of experience, and he resides in Durango Colorado.He has numerous real estate designations, which have provided him with an unparalleled education to assist his clients. The designations include:

CRS, Certified Residential Specialist
CRB, Certified Residential Broker
CCIM, Certified Commercial Investment Member
CDPE, Certified Distressed Property Expert
ABR, Accredited Buyer Representation
GRI, Graduate of Realtor Institute
RSPS, Resort and Second Home Property Specialist
CIPS, Certified International Property Specialist
SRES, Senior Real Estate Specialist

He is also an active volunteer in the community and his church. His highest aspiration is spending time with his wife, Janet, and his three children Kelly, Katie, and Kyle. His other interests include playing tennis, fly fishing, hiking, boating, and water skiing.

Banks Loosen Credit Standards

I'm reprinting an article below from dsnews.com published today indicating yet another opinion that the housing crisis should end in 2012 with loosening bank credit standards.

Housing Crisis to End in 2012 as Banks Loosen Credit Standards

reprinted from dsnews.com March 15, 2012

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generate actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call me. You can reach me, Don Ricedorff, at The Wells Group 970-375-7014, don@frontier.net, or at my website at durangorealproperty.com.

Don Ricedorff is a licensed real estate broker in the State of Colorado, with 18+ years of experience, and he resides in Durango Colorado.He has numerous real estate designations, which have provided him with an unparalleled education to assist his clients. The designations include:

CRS, Certified Residential Specialist
CRB, Certified Residential Broker
CCIM, Certified Commercial Investment Member
CDPE, Certified Distressed Property Expert
ABR, Accredited Buyer Representation
GRI, Graduate of Realtor Institute
RSPS, Resort and Second Home Property Specialist
CIPS, Certified International Property Specialist
SRES, Senior Real Estate Specialist

He is also an active volunteer in the community and his church. His highest aspiration is spending time with his wife, Janet, and his three children Kelly, Katie, and Kyle. His other interests include playing tennis, fly fishing, hiking, boating, and water skiing.

Warren Buffet's Secretary: Its Time to Buy!

I thought you would enjoy the below quote from Warren Buffet's secretary. With affordability of housing at 1971 levels (according to HUD) and with rents rising dramatically, we too think that now is the time to buy and that the spring real estate season will begin to reflect that. The next edition of the Wells Group Real Estate Guide will coincide nicely with the beginning of "Spring" (March 20th) and will be published in the Durango Herald on March 18th.

"I just thought it was time to buy a home. Warren tells me that it will be the best opportunity in my lifetime. Mortgage rates are low and prices have dropped dramatically…I share Warren's view about the future of America and we believe that our country will do just fine. I am happy to make this investment." Debbie Bosanek - Warren Buffet’s Secretary of 37 Years on Purchasing a Second Home

Omaha World Herald 1/27/2012

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call me. You can reach me, Don Ricedorff, at The Wells Group 970-375-7014, don@frontier.net, or at my website at durangorealproperty.com.

Don Ricedorff is a licensed real estate broker in the State of Colorado, with 18+ years of experience, and he resides in Durango Colorado.He has numerous real estate designations, which have provided him with an unparalleled education to assist his clients. The designations include:

CRS, Certified Residential Specialist
CRB, Certified Residential Broker
CCIM, Certified Commercial Investment Member
CDPE, Certified Distressed Property Expert
ABR, Accredited Buyer Representation
GRI, Graduate of Realtor Institute
RSPS, Resort and Second Home Property Specialist
CIPS, Certified International Property Specialist
SRES, Senior Real Estate Specialist

He is also an active volunteer in the community and his church. His highest aspiration is spending time with his wife, Janet, and his three children Kelly, Katie, and Kyle. His other interests include playing tennis, fly fishing, hiking, boating, and water skiing.

Investing in Real Estate - Still a Winner!

The stock market is doing much better right now. But, the chart I've reproduced above shows that from January 1, 2000 until February 1, 2012, that whether you invested $100,000 in the DOW, the S&P, the NASDAQ, or in Real Estate, Real Estate proved to be the better investment. So, even in what some consider the worst decade of real estate in America, real estate was still a great investment.

As the stock market continues to improve, people may start thinking that the stock market is a better place to invest their funds. My point to those folks is to please just keep the above graph in mind because it proves that that just isn't so!

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call me. You can reach me, Don Ricedorff, at The Wells Group 970-375-7014, don@frontier.net, or at my website at durangorealproperty.com.

Don Ricedorff is a licensed real estate broker in the State of Colorado, with 18+ years of experience, and he resides in Durango Colorado.He has numerous real estate designations, which have provided him with an unparalleled education to assist his clients. The designations include:

CRS, Certified Residential Specialist
CRB, Certified Residential Broker
CCIM, Certified Commercial Investment Member
CDPE, Certified Distressed Property Expert
ABR, Accredited Buyer Representation
GRI, Graduate of Realtor Institute
RSPS, Resort and Second Home Property Specialist
CIPS, Certified International Property Specialist
SRES, Senior Real Estate Specialist

He is also an active volunteer in the community and his church. His highest aspiration is spending time with his wife, Janet, and his three children Kelly, Katie, and Kyle. His other interests include playing tennis, fly fishing, hiking, boating, and water skiing.