Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Economic Vitality Tied Directly to Consumer Confidence

Dear Friends,

There was a time when my opinion about Durango, Colorado real estate was centered on Durango's unique character and charm. Durango is so desirable, with its quality of life, natural beauty, wonderful western heritage, and friendly people that I thought it was not affected by outside influences. The last few years have changed that opinion somewhat. I still believe Durango and surrounding areas have a much higher quality of life and that other regions have suffered much more in the economic downturn. But it has been proven to me that Durango has not been insulated. This is not a surprise to many of you. Now we know that what has happened in the Durango real estate market is directly related to national consumer confidence.

Our growth and return to economic vitality will be related directly to consumer confidence. I am convinced that people are willing to purchase when they are assured of continued employment and that their economic outlook is bright. The measurement of consumer confidence is determined with The Conference Board which was started in 1967. The benchmark year for The Conference Board is 1985 when the index was established at 100. The Conference Board modifies the index each month based on 5,000 households. The all time low was set in February of 2009 when it hit 25, reflecting the deep concerns for the recession and the financial collapse of 4th quarter of 2008.

Today, the index through October stands at 50.2, still a very low number, and it continues to show the national pessimism of high unemployment, political discouragement, and a slow economy.

The real estate market will see improvement when the economy continues to pull out of the recession and jobs are restored. There are many national economists that are saying the economy is improving and is better than our national sentiment (confidence).

It is my hope and trust that the people sent to Washington in the most recent election will do something to inspire our nation, regardless of on which side of the political fence they reside. Second, I hope and trust our economy is improving at a rate better than estimated. Third, I hope and trust the banks and financial institutions will figure out how to loan money without unduly tough standards.

Those of us tied to the real estate business, including mortgage companies, appraisers, title companies and Realtors can not believe the incredible opportunity in the market today. We have the highest affordability in decades, abundant inventory, and interest rates lower than we have ever seen. A little consumer confidence could take us a long ways! For not just Durango, but for our entire country, I'm hopeful that in 2011 we will finally begin to see a brighter economic outlook.

Warm regards,

Don


If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call me. You can reach me, Don Ricedorff, at The Wells Group 970-375-7014, don@frontier.net, or at my website at durangorealproperty.com.

Don Ricedorff is a licensed real estate broker in the State of Colorado, with 16 years of experience, and he resides in Durango Colorado.He has numerous real estate designations, which have provided him with an unparalleled education to assist his clients. The designations include:

CRS, Certified Residential Specialist
CRB, Certified Residential Broker
CCIM, Certified Commercial Investment Member
CDPE, Certified Distressed Property Expert
ABR, Accredited Buyer Representation
GRI, Graduate of Realtor Institute
RSPS, Resort and Second Home Property Specialist
CIPS, Certified International Property Specialist
SRES, Senior Real Estate Specialist


He is also an active volunteer in the community and his church. His highest aspiration is spending time with his wife, Janet, and his three children Kelly, Katie, and Kyle. His other interests include playing tennis, fly fishing, hiking, boating, and water skiing.

Friday, November 5, 2010

Durango Colorado Real Estate Statistics- Nov 5, 2010

La Plata County & Durango Colorado
Residential Market Conditions
November 5, 2010



The autumn market in La Plata County was significantly softer than the same period of 2009, following the slower showing activity in the summer. In my opinion, this is a direct reflection of consumer confidence, and the less than anticipated economic growth coupled with little or no job growth.

Residential Transactions For La Plata County: September & October

2010 2009 2008

98 121 140

The median price has shown a significant increase for the same period, but candidly, we do not see it in the direct comparisons for similar homes from one year to the next. The answer appears to be in the improvement of sales over $500,000, as savvy higher end buyers have returned to find “deals” to purchase.

Median Price For La Plata County: September & October

2010 2009 2008

$341,750 $285,000 $336,000

Average Price For La Plata County: September & October

2010 2009 2008

$401,516 $379,537 $384,194

Days on Market For La Plata County: September & October

2010 2009 2008

250 239 169




The Durango Market:
(Durango In-Town & Durango Rural)

Durango Market Sept-Oct: 2010 2009 2008

Transactions: 80 73 92

Median Price: $367,450 $369,000 $379,282

Average Price: $420,318 $452,923 $409,634

This market has fared better than the overall County with a small increase in transactions over last year. Currently, there are 836 homes on the market in Durango, which is approximately a 1.8 year supply.

YTD: Jan-Oct-La Plata County: 2010 2009 2008

Transactions: 525 453 623

Median Price: $315,000 $292,000 $325,500

Average Price: $380,591 $365,165 $389,942


The transactions are up 15.9% this year over last year, but we have been giving up the gains we made early in the year during the stimulus plan. For the first half of 2010, transactions were up 41.5%.

The inventory of homes, available for sale, in the County is currently 1,279. Based on a sales rate of 634 homes sold in the last 12 months, this equates to a two-year inventory of homes on the market.


YTD: Jan-Oct / La Plata County

Sales over $500,000: 2010 2009 2008

Transactions: 97 71 133

Median Price: $650,000 $675,000 $610,000

Average Price: $814,416 $827,118 $744,119

In this price segment, transactions are up 36.6% this year over last, but well short of the totals for 2008. The challenge in this market segment is the amount of inventory. As of today, there are 374 homes available for sale, a 3 year inventory.