National Housing Shortage Ahead?

There is a buzz in some quarters that there is a national housing shortage ahead. Right now, with todays still depressed real estate market in Durango, it is hard to fathom a different future. However, David Crowe, Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders is predicting a severe housing shortage nationally that will begin in the next 18 months and continue for a decade. Obviously, this prediction is coming from the home building industry perspective, but it is interesting that the Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies is making a similar prediction based on these factors:

1. Gen-Y-er's (those born roughly between mid 1970s and early 2000s) are approximately 81 million strong. They believe in home ownership and there are millions more of them than the Baby Boomers.

2. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 47% of home buyers in 2009 were first-time buyers and NAR predicts that in 2010, first-time buyers will represent 52% of all home sales. Thus, Gen-Y-er's housing impact has only just begun.

3. According to the Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies report, anticipated household growth during the next 10 years will range between 12.5 million and 14.8 million. All those new households mean demand for many new housing units.

The bottom line, according to these national predictions, is that the number of homes today is simply not going to be enough to keep up with America's overall growing population and by the growing demand for home ownership Gen-Y buyers.

We all just need to hang tight. The future for home sales and home building is bright. And, as I try to remind buyers buyers routinely, NOW is the perfect time to buy due to the uncommonly good inventory of affordable homes and the historically low interest rates.
Don Ricedorff is a licensed real estate broker in the State of Colorado, with 16 years of experience, and he resides in Durango Colorado.He has numerous real estate designations, which have provided him with an unparalleled education to assist his clients.


The designations include:

CRS, Certified Residential Specialist
CRB, Certified Residential Broker
CCIM, Certified Commercial Investment Member
CDPE, Certified Distressed Property Expert
ABR, Accredited Buyer Representation
GRI, Graduate of Realtor Institute
RSPS, Resort and Second Home Property Specialist
CIPS, Certified International Property Specialist
SRES, Senior Real Estate Specialist


He is also an active volunteer in the community and his church. His highest aspiration is spending time with his wife, Janet, and his three children Kelly, Katie, and Kyle. His other interests include playing tennis, fly fishing, hiking, boating, and water skiing.